Dementia incidence trend in England and Wales, 2002-19, and projection for dementia burden to 2040: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: Dementia incidence declined in many high-income countries in the 2000s, but evidence on the post-2010 trend is scarce. We aimed to analyse the temporal trend in England and Wales between 2002 and 2019, considering bias and non-linearity. METHODS: Population-based panel data representing adults aged 50 years and older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were linked to the mortality register across wave 1 (2002-03) to wave 9 (2018-19) (90 073 person observations). Standard criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain incident dementia. Crude incidence rates were determined in seven overlapping initially dementia-free subcohorts each followed up for 4 years (ie, 2002-06, 2004-08, 2006-10, 2008-12, 2010-14, 2012-16, and 2014-18). We examined the temporal trend of dementia incidence according to age, sex, and educational attainment. We estimated the trend of dementia incidence adjusted by age and sex with Cox proportional hazards and multistate models. Restricted cubic splines allowed for potential non-linearity in the time trend. A Markov model was used to project future dementia burden considering the estimated incidence trend. FINDINGS: Incidence rate standardised by age and sex declined from 2002 to 2010 (from 10·7 to 8·6 per 1000 person-years), then increased from 2010 to 2019 (from 8·6 to 11·3 per 1000 person-years). Adjusting for age and sex, and accounting for missing dementia cases due to death, estimated dementia incidence declined by 28·8% from 2002 to 2008 (incidence rate ratio 0·71, 95% CI 0·58-0·88), and increased by 25·2% from 2008 to 2016 (1·25, 1·03-1·54). The group with lower educational attainment had a smaller decline in dementia incidence from 2002 to 2008 and a greater increase after 2008. If the upward incidence trend continued, there would be 1·7 million (1·62-1·75) dementia cases in England and Wales by 2040, 70% more than previously forecast. INTERPRETATION: Dementia incidence might no longer be declining in England and Wales. If the upward trend since 2008 continues, along with population ageing, the burden on health and social care will be large. FUNDING: UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Impact of hypertension prevalence trend on mortality and burdens of dementia and disability in England and Wales to 2060: a simulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Previous estimates of the impact of public health interventions targeting hypertension usually focus on one health outcome. This study aims to consider the effects of change in future hypertension prevalence on mortality, dementia, and disability simultaneously. METHODS: We modelled three plausible scenarios based on observed trends of hypertension prevalence from 2003 to 2017 in England: observed trends continue (baseline scenario); 2017 prevalence remains unchanged; and 2017 prevalence decreases by 50% by 2060. We used a probabilistic Markov model to integrate calendar trends in incidence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability, and mortality to forecast their future occurrence in the population of England and Wales. Assuming the hypertension prevalence trend modifies health transition probabilities, we compared mortality outcomes and the burden of dementia and disability to 2060 for the scenarios. FINDINGS: If the decline in hypertension prevalence stops, there would be a slight increase in the number of additional deaths to 2060 (22·9 [95% uncertainty interval 19·0-26·6] more deaths per 100 000 population), although the burdens of disability and dementia in absolute terms would change little. Alternatively, if the downward hypertension prevalence trend accelerates (with prevalence falling by 50% between 2017 and 2060), there would be a modest additional reduction in deaths (57·0 [50·4-63·5] fewer deaths per 100 000 population), a small increase in dementia burden (9·0 [5·1-13·2] more cases per 100 000 population), no significant effect on disability burden, and an 8% gain in healthy life expectancy at age 65 years from 2020 to 2060 (5·3 years vs 4·9 years) compared with the baseline scenario. INTERPRETATION: The major future impact of alternative hypertension prevention strategies appears to be on future life expectancy. The salutary effect of lower population blood pressure distribution on incidence of dementia and disability might not offset expansion of the susceptible population due to reduced mortality. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Growing old in China in socioeconomic and epidemiological context: systematic review of social care policy for older people.

BACKGROUND: From 2020 to 2050, China's population aged ≥65 years old is estimated to more than double from 172 million (12·0%) to 366 million (26·0%). Some 10 million have Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, to approach 40 million by 2050. Critically, the population is ageing fast while China is still a middle-income country. METHODS: Using official and population-level statistics, we summarise China's demographic and epidemiological trends relevant to ageing and health from 1970 to present, before examining key determinants of China's improving population health in a socioecological framework. We then explore how China is responding to the care needs of its older population by carrying out a systematic review to answer the question: 'what are the key policy challenges to China achieving an equitable nationwide long-term care system for older people?'. Databases were screened for records published between 1st June 2020 and 1st June 2022 in Mandarin Chinese or English, reflecting our focus on evidence published since introduction of China's second long-term care insurance pilot phase in 2020. RESULTS: Rapid economic development and improved access to education has led to widescale internal migration. Changing fertility policies and household structures also pose considerable challenges to the traditional family care model. To deal with increasing need, China has piloted 49 alternative long-term care insurance systems. Our findings from 42 studies (n = 16 in Mandarin) highlight significant challenges in the provision of quality and quantity of care which suits the preference of users, varying eligibility for long-term care insurance and an inequitable distribution of cost burden. Key recommendations include increasing salaries to attract and retain staff, introduction of mandatory financial contributions from employees and a unified standard of disability with regular assessment. Strengthening support for family caregivers and improving smart old age care capacity can also support preferences to age at home. CONCLUSIONS: China has yet to establish a sustainable funding mechanism, standardised eligibility criteria and a high-quality service delivery system. Its long-term care insurance pilot studies provide useful lessons for other middle-income countries facing similar challenges in terms of meeting the long-term care needs of their rapidly growing older populations.

Is there a common latent cognitive construct for dementia estimation across two Chinese cohorts?

Introduction: It is valuable to identify common latent cognitive constructs for dementia prevalence estimation across Chinese aging cohorts. Methods: Based on cognitive measures of 12015 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS; 13 items) and 6623 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS; 9 items) participants aged 65 to 99 in 2018, confirmatory factor analysis was applied to identify latent cognitive constructs, and to estimate dementia prevalence compared to Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and nationwide estimates of the literature. Results: A common three-factor cognitive construct of orientation, memory, and executive function and language was found for both cohorts with adequate model fits. Crude dementia prevalence estimated by factor scores was similar to MMSE in CLHLS, and was more reliable in CHARLS. Age-standardized dementia estimates of CLHLS were lower than CHARLS among those aged 70+, which were close to the nationwide prevalence reported by the COAST study and Global Burden of Disease. Discussion: We verified common three-factor cognitive constructs for both cohorts, providing an approach to estimate dementia prevalence at the national level. Highlights: Common three-factor cognitive constructs were identified in Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).Crude dementia estimates using factor scores were reliable in both cohorts.Estimates of CHARLS were close to current evidence, but higher than that of CLHLS.

The mental health and well-being of internally displaced female Yazidis in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: a realist review of psychosocial interventions and the impact of COVID-19.

Background: Yazidis in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq have been exposed to recurrent traumatic experiences associated with genocide and gender-based violence (GBV). In 2014, ISIS perpetrated another genocide against the Yazidi community of Sinjar. Women and girls were held captive, raped and beaten. Many have been forced into displacement. Rates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and suicide are high. Limited research has evaluated interventions delivered to this population. Methods: This review explores how the global evidence on psychosocial interventions for female survivors of conflict-related sexual violence applies to the context of the female Yazidi population. We used a realist review to explore mechanisms underpinning complex psychosocial interventions delivered to internally displaced, conflict-affected females. Findings were cross-referenced with eight realist, semi-structured interviews with stakeholders who deliver interventions to female Yazidis in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Interviews also allowed us to explore the impact of COVID-19 on effectiveness of interventions. Results: Seven mechanisms underpinned positive mental health outcomes (reduced PTSD, depression, anxiety, suicidal ideation): safe spaces, a strong therapeutic relationship, social connection, mental health literacy, cultural-competency, gender-matching and empowerment. Interviews confirmed relevance and applicability of mechanisms to the displaced female Yazidi population. Interviews also reported increased PTSD, depression, suicide and flashbacks since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, with significant disruptions to interventions. Conclusion: COVID-19 is just one of many challenges in the implementation and delivery of interventions. Responding to the mental health needs of female Yazidis exposed to chronic collective violence requires recognition of their sociocultural context and everyday experiences.